The best case scenario would be a bottom like that seen in 1974. The consolidation period was shorter than the one seen after the 2002 bottom. After the bottom came in 1974 there was a quick lived rally and then a retest of the low. The market then went into a new bull market. One thing to note here is if you wanted to buy and hold you would have been better to do so on the retest, because you would have been able to buy the stocks that held up during the retest - they became the market leaders of the next bull market.
On the 1974 bottom the DOW was about 30% away from its 200-day moving average. Just like in 2002 - and just like at this moment.
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