Distribution

THE ICE STORY
In Robert Evans’ ice story analogy, we imagine the market in the person of a Boy Scout walking
over a frozen river in the midst of winter. If support (the ice) is strong, the river covered with ice
has no difficulty in supporting the weight of the Boy Scout. That support is seen as a wiggly dashed line connecting the lows, the supports, in a TR. A failure by the Boy Scout to reach the upper resistance level of the TR would be a warning of potential weakness. Weakness of the ice would be signaled by the Boy Scout breaking support, or falling through the ice.

The Boy Scout has two chances to get back above the ice (that is, creating a bullish “spring” situation). On the first upward rally the Boy Scout may fail to regain a footing above the ice. If so,
he will sink lower into the river in order to gather strength to try and rally once more and crack
the ice. If on this second attempt the Boy Scout again fails to penetrate above the ice, he would most likely sink downward and drown. (That is, a bear market/markdown phase would occur.)